Truthful, Scientific Analysis of the War in Ukraine
All this should also drive home why it is so important to have a truthful, scientific understanding of what is really going on with the war in Ukraine.
In a previous article, I spoke to important elements, and in particular actions of the imperialist rulers of this country, that have contributed to the current war in Ukraine:
What did the government of the U.S., under both Democrats and Republicans, do after the Soviet Union, and its military bloc, the Warsaw Pact, ceased to exist, at the beginning of the 1990s?....
Beginning in the 1990s, recognizing that what was left in place of the Soviet Union was a weakened Russia, the U.S. imperialists, as the gangsters they truly are, seized the opportunity to further expand their empire—going back on their “word” that they would not extend their aggressive military alliance (NATO) into countries of the previous Warsaw Pact. Ignoring this promise, the U.S. imperialists moved to include countries in NATO that are close to, and in some cases actually border on, Russia. As part of all this, the U.S. has repeatedly interfered in Ukraine in recent decades, conspiring to overturn governments there that were more friendly to Russia and replace them with governments leaning toward “western” imperialism, as happened as recently as 2014.
A key element in all this, which played a significant part in the decision by Russia to invade Ukraine, was the declaration by the pro-U.S. government in Ukraine that it wanted to join NATO. Ukraine is a large country right on the border of Russia. As articles at revcom.us have pointed out: Think what it would mean, and what the rulers of the U.S. would do, if the government of Mexico declared its intention to join a military alliance headed by Russia!3
As I also emphasized in that article:
None of this “justifies” the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But it does put this in its larger context, and in its true light. It shines a light on what the real intentions of the U.S. imperialists are in this war. The essential purpose and aim of the U.S. in this is not to help a weaker country defend itself against a more powerful aggressor; it is to weaken an imperialist rival, Russia (and also possibly weaken China, which is in a kind of cooperative relation with Russia at this point) in order to strengthen the domination of U.S. imperialism, and fortify NATO (especially after NATO had been weakened through the actions of Trump, which heightened divisions between the U.S. and other NATO countries).
The U.S. is now fighting a “war by proxy” with Russia—waging economic war (through “sanctions”) against Russia, while at the same time massively arming Ukraine.4
To speak to the essence of what is involved, on the part of the imperialists, on both sides of this conflict:
Something which cannot be stressed too many times—especially given the lies and distortions in the relentless propaganda offensive by U.S. imperialism and its media—is the reality that the confrontation between the U.S./NATO on the one side, and Russia on the other, is not a conflict “between democracy and autocracy” but between rival imperialists. (As I have pointed out before, Turkey, which is a member of NATO, is itself ruled by an “autocratic” government—and the same is true of Poland, also a member of NATO.)5
Actual Aims of Putin/Russian Imperialism
By way of introduction to this question of Putin’s aims, and as a basic point of orientation and method, it is important to make clear that I do not claim to have some informed understanding of what Putin’s “state of mind” may be—and this also applies to those “analysts” in the U.S. media who do claim to have such knowledge. But it is possible to identify what are actually some of the main aims of Putin/the Russian imperialists in this war in Ukraine.
In light of what has been spoken to here, it can be seen that a part—and an immediate objective—of what Putin/the Russian imperialists are pursuing in this war in Ukraine is putting a stop to NATO expansion around Russia (in particular through the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO), and to counter what is effectively NATO’s “encirclement” of Russia (in particular the western part of Russia, which contains major population and government centers).
Russia has also claimed that its goal in this war is to put an end to militarization and “Nazification” in Ukraine, which Putin insists is a threat to Russia. The claims of NAZI elements in Ukraine and its government have been repeatedly ridiculed by politicians and media in the U.S. and other countries, including Ukrainian officials. As supposed “refutation” of this claim, they have cited the fact that the head of the Ukrainian government, Volodymyr Zelensky, is himself Jewish—as if this somehow “automatically disproves” the accusation about NAZI influence in Ukraine.6 But facts are facts—and the fact is that NAZI forces have played a significant part in shaping recent events in Ukraine, and some of them have been integrated into its government institutions, in particular the military. Nevertheless, the essential aim of the Russians is not to “de-nazify” Ukraine, nor simply to protect pro-Russian people, particularly in eastern Ukraine, but again is to counter NATO’s “encirclement” of Russia—and, beyond that, to pursue Russian imperialist interests in the broader world, in opposition to the dominant position of U.S. imperialism. As Raymond Lotta pointed out in a recent talk:
The Russians, for their part, have, and especially since 2014, backed sections of Russian-speaking Ukraine to break away and ally or merge with Russia. In 2016-17, the U.S.-led NATO deployed battle groups with advanced weapons to Poland and other Baltic states like Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia that border Russia (and very close to Russia’s second-largest city, St. Petersburg). Meanwhile Ukraine has been moving closer to the U.S. and trumpeting its determination to join the U.S.-dominated NATO military alliance. This is the immediate backdrop to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February.
The Russian invasion is not about de-nazifying Ukraine, as Putin proclaims. This invasion is designed to bolster Russia’s rivalry with the U.S.: to command more influence and create a rival Russian pole of power focused in Europe, central Asia, and the Middle East. For its part, the U.S. is arming Ukraine in order to weaken Russia and prevent Russia from consolidating further imperialist strength and posing greater imperialist challenges to the current world order that the U.S. dominates and of which it is the main beneficiary.7
It is motivations and objectives of this kind—which are grounded in the basic nature of the capitalist-imperialist system and the necessities perceived by the leaders of imperialist states, on the opposing sides—and not irrational and simply “power mad ambitions” of Putin (or, on the other hand, Biden and the U.S. imperialists he represents) that are driving the war in Ukraine, and that pose such grave dangers.
In this regard, it is worth noting what Putin has—and has not—done over the past couple of decades. With a military incursion into the country of Georgia (which borders Russia), then in Crimea (which was part of Ukraine but was occupied by Russian forces in 2014 and effectively “annexed” to Russia), as well as in conflicts like that in Syria (where the U.S. and Russia were backing opposing sides), and now with the invasion of Ukraine as a whole, Putin has acted in ways that are intended to achieve his objectives while avoiding direct confrontation with NATO. And it can be said that Putin moved against Ukraine, among other reasons, because Ukraine is not part of NATO—he did so before it became part of NATO, and to prevent it from becoming part of NATO.
If Putin waited until Ukraine became part of NATO (which, again, Ukraine has declared its desire and intention to do) then an attack on Ukraine would constitute a whole other order of conflict—a situation that would “legally” require the U.S./NATO to militarily “come to the defense” of a NATO country so attacked. In that situation, failure by the U.S./NATO to directly oppose and engage Russia militarily would, according to the calculations of imperialist gangster logic, be “giving in to the nuclear blackmail” of Putin/Russia—which could then set in motion a “logic,” dynamic and momentum toward repeatedly “giving in”—all of which is something these imperialists of the U.S. and NATO could not allow. Again, the operative and important point here is that Ukraine is not part of NATO, so an attack on Ukraine by Russia does not (automatically or necessarily) “trigger” a direct military conflict with the U.S./NATO.
This bears significantly on the claim, or complaint, from some U.S. imperialist quarters, that not directly intervening militarily in Ukraine is allowing Putin to “set the terms” of the conflict. This was explicitly raised by CNN “national security reporter” Jim Sciutto, at a press conference where he first asked why the U.S. did not shoot down the plane that had apparently destroyed a maternity hospital in Ukraine. Then, upon being told that this could start World War 3, Sciutto insisted: but doesn’t that allow Putin to set the terms? The answer to this is that it is in fact likely that Russia, more than the U.S./NATO, would “set the terms” in this war because Russia is at war, directly, with Ukraine, while the U.S. has (so far at least) insisted that it is not, and will not become, directly involved, militarily, in this conflict, but instead will take part by providing large amounts of arms (and in other ways providing support) to Ukraine, while waging economic war, through sanctions, against Russia.
But what is actually involved in this argument (by Sciutto and others) is something much more insidious and dangerous. It is an argument that the U.S. (and NATO) should be directly involved militarily. Especially for such types—seemingly drunk with a bloodthirsty sense of the invincible military might of the U.S. and apparently anxious, after the “disappointments” in Afghanistan and Iraq, to once again demonstrate this supposedly invincible might—this line of argument (for direct U.S./NATO military involvement) is encouraged and “buttressed” by what appears to be the poor showing of the Russian military in its invasion of Ukraine (at least so far, prior to its major offensive in eastern Ukraine, whose outcome is, at the time I am writing this, unclear).
What We Need to Do—What Is in the Interests of Humanity
From all this, it should be obvious that the interests of the masses of people in all the different countries involved, and of humanity as a whole, are in fundamental opposition to those of the imperialists on both sides of this conflict. With this understanding, what are we called on to do?
It would, of course, be in the interests of the masses of people everywhere for the actions of the imperialists, on both sides of this war, to be halted, right away. But the reality is that we—the masses of people, in the countries involved and in the world as a whole—do not, and cannot, determine, in direct and immediate terms, what the different governments will do. In order to determine the direction of society, we need revolution, to overthrow these imperialist (and other) oppressors and bring a radically different and emancipating system into being. What we can do, and need to do, now—while these imperialists are still in power—is speak, and act, in opposition to their military aggression, on all sides, with the aim of contributing in that way to a situation where they feel compelled to pull back from such aggression (including indirect as well as direct involvement in war), as has happened in the past, notably with the war in Vietnam in the 1970s, where mass opposition among broad ranks of people in the U.S. (and other countries) was a significant factor in forcing the U.S. to withdraw from the imperialist war it had been waging in Vietnam.
People in Russia who have courageously spoken out and acted in opposition to their country’s war in Ukraine should be supported, and further opposition of this kind should be encouraged. But, at the same time, the hypocritical moves by the imperialists of the U.S. (and others allied with them) to use this opposition to Russian aggression to reinforce, and build support for, “western” imperialist aims and actions—this, too, should be firmly opposed.
Here it is important to stress these basic points of orientation:
Of course, this act of imperialist aggression by Russia deserves to be condemned. But especially for people residing in this country—which, again, by far holds the record for such acts of aggression—it is a matter of basic principle and profound importance not to be echoing the positions and serving the aims of “our” imperialists, and instead to be making very clear our opposition to the aims and actions of these (U.S.) imperialists, who are using opposition to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, not as a way of promoting “peace,” or “the right of nations to self-determination,” but as means of furthering U.S. imperialist interests, in opposition to the rival Russian imperialists. So, in keeping with this crucial principle, any opposition to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, particularly by people in this imperialist country, should be accompanied by a clear and definite stand of also opposing the role of the U.S. in the world, including the wars it continually wages, and other ways it violently interferes in other countries.8
And overall, in the countries that are part of NATO (or in other ways aligned with the U.S.) people there, including those who are speaking out against and mobilizing in opposition to Russian aggression in Ukraine, need to raise their sights, recognize and also actively oppose the ways in which the ruling classes of their own countries are seeking to misuse opposition to Russia’s aggression to further their own reactionary objectives.
Once again, in fundamental terms, in order to put an end to the wars waged by these imperialists, along with all their other massive crimes, it is necessary to put an end to their whole system, which continually gives rise to such wars and the horrific destruction and massive suffering they repeatedly involve—wars which can pose a threat to the very existence of humanity (along with the continuing, and accelerating, destruction of the environment, for which these imperialists are also primarily responsible).
Certainly, a crucial lesson that people should learn from the war in Ukraine is that humanity cannot afford any longer to allow these imperialists, on any side, to continue to rule the world, and battle over who will dominate in this situation, with the very real and dire threat this poses to the future, and the very existence, of humanity.
In this light, the following is of great relevance and importance:
As I have analyzed extensively in “Something Terrible, Or Something Truly Emancipating,” with what is going on in the world today, and with all the dangers and difficulties it will involve, this is one of those rare times when revolution, in this imperialist country itself, becomes more possible—and is all the more urgently needed.9
All this underlines once again the great importance of the slogans raised at revcom.us, and the demonstrations being called for, in New York and Los Angeles, on May First around these slogans:
NO US/NATO WAR WITH RUSSIA! NO WORLD WAR 3!
IT’S THIS SYSTEM, NOT HUMANITY, THAT NEEDS TO BECOME EXTINCT!
WE DON’T ACCEPT THEIR FUTURE